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May 10, 2016

Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support

The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support (FiveThirtyEight)

This article is very interesting.
Exit polls might show that average Trump voters are not very poor, although low-income voters are statistically underrepresented in the GOP.
In the questionnaire, the last question is about "2015 total family income", which is not easy to answer accurately at the entrance of polling stations. They might want to appear to be wealthier than they really are.
There is no question about their occupation. There is no evidence of their "class" consciousness.
I wonder which description is more appropriate. Are they "aggrieved" whites or relatively wealthy whites?


May 07, 2016

Donald Trump and the Republican elete

"Here are five key issues upon which the billionaire businessman diverges from Republican orthodoxy as represented by leaders like Mr Ryan and presidents of the past."

On some points, Trump is less influenced by the disastrous market fundamentalism shared by the Republican elite. For example, Trump appears to have a more sensible idea about social services. Of course, I should add that I am not referring here to his casinos and Trump University.


Did the demographic forecast model really beat the polls?

"Based on the African-American share of the electorate in 2008, the Democratic share of the electorate in 2008, and the fact that all three states are located outside of the South, the model predicts Sanders victories in Indiana and Oregon, a Clinton victory in Kentucky, and a tie in West Virginia. The main reason why Sanders is favored in Indiana and Oregon while Clinton is favored in Kentucky is that the Democratic share of primary voters in Kentucky was much higher than in Indiana or Oregon in 2008. While Oregon’s primary, like Kentucky’s, is technically closed, self-identified independents made up a much larger share of Oregon’s Democratic primary voters in 2008, and I assume that this will also be the case in 2016. And while West Virginia holds an open primary, Democrats made up almost 80% of the voters in 2008."

Abramowitz's model:
Y = 5.1 + 11.0 X(1) + 0.2 X(2) + 0.6 X(3)

X(1): South
X(2): AfricanAmerican
X(3): Democrats

Y: Clinton's vote share

It reflects the number or non-existence of the "self-identified independents".


Y = 5.1 + 11.0 X(1) + 0.2 X(2) + 0.6 X(3)

If you replace Y with 100 - Z ,
Z = 94.9 - 11.0 X(1) - 0.2 X(2) - 0.6 X(3).

Is this right? (Z refers to Sanders' vote share.)


What do you think about the difference between two equations?
Why are the two constants so different?
5.1 and 94.5

Am I right in thinking that Y + Z = 100 ?


I think that what Bernie Sanders calls "momentum" is hidden in the constant of the forecast model.
Paul Krugman in his tweet contends that there is no such thing as momentum. But, It could be found when you compare data at several points. A set of "cross-sectional" data at a point can neither prove nor disprove the existence of momentum.


May 06, 2016

Mr Cruz’s departure from the campaign

"Mr Cruz’s departure from the campaign is unlikely to be the end of his political career. The junior senator, a hardline conservative who advocates deep tax cuts skewed towards the rich, the loosening of environmental rules and business regulations, the repeal of Barack Obama’s health-care law and an increasingly fierce anti-immigrant rhetoric, is only 45 years old. In his speech on May 3rd he seemed to be leaving the door open to a comeback in some future year. 'Our movement will continue, and I give you my word that I will continue this fight with all of my strength and all of my ability,' he said."
The Economist

I think that he is fighting for unreasonable weird causes

I saw a slide that describes "a White supremacist Super PAC", which endorses Donald Trump. "Don't Vote For A Cuban, Vote Trump" is the message from the Super PAC. Do you think that Mr Cruz's departure from the campaign is related to this sort of anti-Cruz and pro-Trump activity, which refers to his racial identity? Did the fact that his father comes from Cuba put him at a disadvantage in his campaign, even though he reportedly speaks with a fierce "anti-immigrant rhetoric"?

BBC News - Trump links Cruz's father to Kennedy assassination
"In an interview with the Miami Herald, Gus Russo, an expert on the Kennedy assassination, was sceptical of the Enquirer's claims."
"The National Enquirer previously published a report claiming that Ted Cruz had several extra-marital affairs. The tabloid provided no evidence."


May 05, 2016

Trump's base

"So maybe Trump’s base is angry, fairly affluent white racists — sort of like The Donald himself, only not as rich? And maybe they’re not being hoodwinked?"
Tea and Trumpism
The New York Times

It does not appear to me that they are "fairly affluent", even if they are white racists.
I don't think Krugman's guess is right. Tea Party supporters and Trump supporters are a little different.


The Rolling Stones

"The Rolling Stones have ordered presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump to stop playing their songs during his rallies.
The British rock icons became angered after learning the billionaire was using their music as part of a soundtrack to his appearances."
Mirror Online

If you start Donald Trump up, he will never stop. He intends to play chicken. It is disastrous to the world as well as the US. He should notice that you cannot always get what you want.


May 03, 2016

Is the EU already dead?

"Without Britain, it would be harder for the EU to pull its global weight—a big loss to the West in a troubled neighbourhood, from Russia through Syria to north Africa. "
"Europe would be poorer without Britain’s voice: more dominated by Germany; and, surely, less liberal, more protectionist and more inward-looking. Europe’s links to America would become more tenuous. Above all, the loss of its biggest military power and most significant foreign-policy actor would seriously weaken the EU in the world."
The Economist

The writer of the article in The Economist thinks that if Britain exits, the EU will be "more dominated by Germany" and "less liberal." On the other hand, Emmanuel Todd, who is a self-proclaimed leftist, thinks that the EU is not a society but a jungle. According to this famous French scholar, the EU is already dead. The "employers' association" in Germany is controlling the EU, and what they are worrying about is the breakdown of the eurozone, which is a new name for the mark zone.


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